Southern Madagascar Braces for El Niño as Rainfall Declines

Residents and farmers in southern Madagascar are preparing for the expected effects of an El Niño warming pattern in the coming months, amid declining rainfall, growing water shortages and increasing food insecurity.

Experts expect the phenomenon to be the strongest on record, while the World Meteorological Organization has warned that the risk of drought is rising. The exact scale and timing of the effects remain unspecified.

Farmers report deteriorating crops

Farmers say limited rainfall has already affected the quality of their crops. Bien Aimée Mampisaina said the timing of the seasons has become less predictable, disrupting when farmers can plant.

“Lately, it hasn’t been raining much. In the past, we used to farm during the rainy season,” Mampisaina said. “When it’s time for us to start farming, it doesn’t rain. So we’re forced to farm at a time when we shouldn’t be doing so, which leads to our crops deteriorating and to poor-quality seeds.”

Odile Mamenosoa, president of the Mifagnavotse Association, said the lack of rain was making agricultural work increasingly difficult. Farmers, she said, were seeking boreholes, pumps and generators to maintain access to water.

“Access to water is difficult, but we must do our best because farming is our whole life,” Mamenosoa said.

Pressure on food and nutrition

Parts of southern Madagascar are already affected by famine, and the source report says climate change could worsen food insecurity. International aid cuts and rising inflation linked by the report to the war in the Middle East are also increasing the risk of severe hunger.

The World Food Programme is assisting people considered at risk, including children identified as suffering from moderate acute malnutrition.

Mamy Razanamahefa, a WFP nutrition officer, said a centre provides care for moderately malnourished children. The children were identified through door-to-door screening across the Fokontany and then checked at a basic health centre.

With the El Niño pattern expected to last for months, reduced rainfall could add further pressure to farming communities already struggling with water access and declining crop quality. No figures were provided for the number of people affected, crop losses or the scale of the rainfall decline.