Ethiopian Rebel Alliance Faces Early Test as Forces Advance in Zone 2

A newly formed armed coalition in Ethiopia has declared its intention to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and oversee what it describes as an inclusive political transition.

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival was announced on September 20. It brings together the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army and four other movements from the Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz regions.

Three days after the announcement, TPLF forces allied with the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front advanced into several districts in Zone 2. The advance met little resistance, according to the source report.

Alliance formed after months of meetings

The coalition followed several months of coordination meetings attended by military and security representatives from Eritrea and Sudan. The participation of groups from northern Ethiopia gives the TPLF, Fano and the Afar movement particular strategic importance because of the region’s proximity to Eritrea.

The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of supporting the new alliance. Eritrea has repeatedly denied similar allegations. The source report says there is evidence suggesting Eritrean backing, but does not detail that evidence.

The alliance’s military potential remains uncertain. Fighting in several regions could force Ethiopia’s federal army to defend multiple fronts, but simultaneous clashes would not necessarily amount to one coordinated campaign aimed at Addis Ababa.

Disputes could challenge coalition

The groups do not share settled positions on several central political and territorial questions. These include the status of western Tigray, known as Wolgait-Tsegede by Amhara actors, the structure of Ethiopia’s federal system, regional boundaries and the distribution of political power.

Questions of representation also remain. The organizations involved do not necessarily speak for every community they claim to represent, while Oromo organizations and political elites are divided over whether to support the alliance. An overseas faction of the Ogaden National Liberation Front reportedly backs the coalition, but leaders inside Ethiopia’s Somali region deny joining it.

The alliance also brings together movements with a history of changing alignments. Fano previously fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF but now opposes Abiy’s administration. The Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front left an earlier opposition grouping in January 2022 after accusing the TPLF of killing Afar civilians.

The TPLF later signed the Pretoria agreement with the federal government, which required it to stop supporting armed groups elsewhere in Ethiopia. The agreement was not fully implemented, although large-scale war had not resumed before the latest escalation.

Political transition under pressure

The Ethiopian National Dialogue Commission, established in 2021, concluded a national conference attended by about 4,000 participants in August. Armed groups and other significant opposition organizations were absent from the process.

Ethiopia held national elections despite voting not taking place in Tigray and several other districts. The newly elected parliament is scheduled to open on October 5, when a new federal government is due to be constituted.

A successful rebel takeover would be considered an unconstitutional change of government under African Union rules and could face regional opposition, according to the source report. Even if Abiy were removed, disputes over land, military command and constitutional power would remain and could contribute to another civil war.

For now, the alliance could face several possible outcomes: prolonged and uneven fighting, internal fragmentation or a more coordinated advance accompanied by defections from federal forces. The source also says any possible intervention by the United Arab Emirates in support of Abiy’s government could produce unpredictable consequences.