Ethiopian Army Pledges Restraint as Northern Fighting Tests 2022 Peace Deal

Ethiopia’s federal military says it is responding with restraint to renewed fighting in the country’s north, where clashes have spread from Tigray into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions.

The escalation has raised fears of another civil war and placed the 2022 Pretoria Agreement under severe strain. The agreement ended a brutal two-year conflict in Tigray and is now facing what has been described as its most serious challenge yet.

Fighting spreads beyond Tigray

Seven armed groups have announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition committed to removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.

In Afar, fighting has been reported around Abala as the military attempts to prevent rebels from taking control. The Ethiopian army also said it killed 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounded 260 during a counter-offensive in North Wollo. Those figures were provided by the army and have not been independently verified.

Clashes have continued around Sama, Soqota and Raya Alamata, while government forces were reportedly moving closer to Alamata. Internet access was also reportedly cut across northern Ethiopia on Friday, although that report was not independently verified.

Competing accounts of the escalation

Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, Ethiopia’s Army Chief of Staff, said the military was responding to what he described as provocations from the Tigray front with “wisdom and restraint”. He accused Eritrea of funding and supporting armed groups to weaken Ethiopia. Eritrea denied the accusation.

Jula described the alliance, which he referred to as “Tsimdo”, as part of a longstanding pattern of hostile alliances. He said it could not confront the state without outside backing.

The Tigray Army, however, said the federal government had launched a “full-scale offensive” involving infantry, mechanised units and drones. Abdisalam Balema, a member of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front central committee, told Al Jazeera that the situation had become a “full war”. The Tigray Army’s account was not independently verified.

Ethiopian army command said it preferred “strategic calm” to a large-scale military confrontation. It argued that support for the Tigray front was weakening and that its leadership was divided.

Agreement under pressure

The United Nations has expressed alarm over reports that drones were being used against civilians in northern Ethiopia. The reports were presented as a matter of concern and were not independently confirmed in the available information.

Alemayehu Weldemariam, a law professor at Indiana University, said the federal government bore much of the responsibility for the breakdown of the Pretoria Agreement. He alleged that provisions of the 2022 cessation of hostilities had been undermined through restrictions on fuel, services and cash in Tigray, as well as the failure to establish a promised interim administration.

“This war has been in the making for a while now,” Weldemariam said, adding that much of the agreement’s provisions had been “primarily sabotaged by the federal government itself”. He also said Tigray had been excluded from national elections since the agreement.

Weldemariam described the interim arrangement as having become permanent rather than temporary.

Regional concerns

The renewed violence has raised concerns about a broader conflict involving armed groups from across Ethiopia. Ethiopia’s president recently told the United Nations General Assembly that the country was a force for regional stability and accused unnamed external actors of interfering in its affairs.

The president also highlighted Addis Ababa’s support for peace efforts in neighbouring Sudan.

Washington has meanwhile lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea linked to atrocities committed during the previous war, saying the national emergency connected to the measures had expired. The renewed fighting now threatens to deepen instability in a region already affected by conflict and political tensions.