Ethiopia’s Rivals Reject Allegations as Northern Fighting Raises Regional Fears

Ethiopia has accused Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of supporting armed opposition groups as renewed fighting moves across the northern regions of Tigray, Amhara and Afar, prompting concern that domestic instability could develop into a wider regional crisis.

Ethiopian army chief Birhanu Jula blamed what he described as the country’s “historical and contemporary adversaries” for the unrest. He also accused Eritrea of serving as an intermediary connecting Sudan and Egypt with armed groups inside Ethiopia.

Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt rejected the allegations. The competing accusations come as relations among the neighbouring countries remain strained by disputes over security, borders and access to the Red Sea.

Regional denials

Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki said Cairo’s foreign policy was based on “full respect for the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of states, and noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries”. He added that Egypt was committed to international law and the United Nations Charter and opposed actions that could damage regional security and stability.

Major-General Samir Farag also rejected the claims involving Egypt, saying the accusations were false. “It has not been Egypt’s policy to interfere in the internal affairs of any state in the region,” he said.

Sudan’s military described Ethiopia’s alleged support for the Rapid Support Forces as “baseless”. Ethiopia denied the allegation. Sudan has previously accused Ethiopia of providing training, supplies and access to its territory to the RSF, which has been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces since 2023.

Domestic political pressure

Some analysts and Ethiopian opposition figures said the accusations could be intended to divert attention from Ethiopia’s internal challenges.

Mohamed Selim said he believed the allegations were being used to create an external enemy and bring Ethiopia’s internal front together. Amani al-Tawil described the claims as “an understandable attempt to escape from internal crises”.

Al-Tawil also said a coalition announced the previous week by seven Ethiopian opposition groups represented a challenge to Addis Ababa. The alliance brings together groups from different ethnic communities and regions, although details of its members were not provided.

Mohammed Hussein estimated that Tigray, Amhara and Afar have a combined population of more than 38 million. The regions also include areas close to the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea, adding to concerns about the strategic implications of continued fighting.

Risk of wider escalation

Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia against rebel groups in Tigray during the 2020–2022 war. Relations have since deteriorated, with Eritrea concerned about Ethiopia’s efforts to secure access to the Red Sea.

Ethiopia and Egypt have also remained in dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam since 2011. Their disagreements have increasingly intersected with wider security concerns involving Sudan, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa.

Ammar Arki said Ethiopia had previously blamed Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea for instability inside the country. He warned that the longer Addis Ababa presents its internal crisis as an “external conspiracy”, particularly if neighbouring states respond with similar accusations, the greater the danger that the conflict could become regional.

The available reports describe fears of spillover but do not establish that the fighting has spread beyond Ethiopia. The allegations by the parties remain disputed, and no independent evidence confirming or disproving them has been provided.