Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups Announce Alliance to Oust Abiy Ahmed

Seven Ethiopian armed movements have announced a new coalition aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and establishing a transitional administration.

The Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival brings together the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), the Ogaden National Liberation Front, the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, the Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement.

Fano commander Zemene Kassie read the alliance’s founding statement on Tigrai TV on Sunday. The statement pledged to remove Abiy and create a transitional administration after his departure.

Different conflicts, shared opposition

Michael Asgedom, a spokesperson for the TPLF, said the alliance was created to bring peace and democracy to Ethiopia. He said its members intended to build a new political order after the fall of Abiy’s system.

The coalition combines movements with different histories, territorial demands and opponents. Its announcement comes as tensions between the federal government and the TPLF have risen despite the Pretoria agreement, which ended the Tigray war in November 2022 and established a permanent cessation of hostilities.

The TPLF restored Tigray’s pre-war legislative council in May and installed Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president. The move created a rival political authority to the interim administration established under the Pretoria agreement, according to the source report.

Federal and Tigrayan forces clashed at Shererina near the Sudanese border on August 1, with heavy artillery and drones reportedly used. Hundreds of Tigrayans fled into Sudan, according to the report.

The TPLF has also reported drone strikes on homes in Mekelle on August 20 and the destruction of a food-aid truck carrying 41 tonnes near Adi Daero on September 20. Those accounts could not be independently verified. The mayor of Alamata separately said drone strikes on two schools killed 14 civilians and wounded 22, though that account also remains unverified.

Questions over coordination

Analysts have expressed doubt about whether the seven groups can function as a single military or political force.

Jawar Mohammed told Al Jazeera that the members had neither a shared political objective nor a common tactical objective. Magnus Taylor of the International Crisis Group said the groups had different grievances against the federal government.

Taylor also said Fano was divided over Western Tigray. He assessed that commanders in Gojjam and Wollo might be more open to cooperation with Tigray than those based closer to the disputed territory.

Kjetil Tronvoll said the TPLF had lost most of its heavy weapons in 2022 and had suffered setbacks in recent clashes involving federal air power. He also questioned whether the groups could operate under a unified command.

Tom Gardner, author of The Abiy Project, said Abiy’s strategy had involved maintaining a low-level conflict through drones, proxies and siege tactics. He warned that the new alliance could contribute to the outbreak of a full-scale war, although the source report does not establish that such a conflict will occur.

Regional concerns

Billene Seyoum, a spokesperson for Abiy, told Reuters that the alliance members had been cooperating for some time with financial backing from Eritrea. Eritrea has repeatedly denied that allegation.

Magnus Taylor described the development as “substantially a domestic Ethiopian phenomenon.” Kjetil Tronvoll claimed Eritrean troops were currently in Tigray, but that assertion could not be independently verified.

The TPLF previously dominated Ethiopia for 27 years before Abiy took power in 2018. The federal army, supported by Eritrean troops and Amhara forces, went to war with the TPLF in November 2020. Only Addis Ababa and the TPLF signed the Pretoria agreement; Eritrea and the Amhara forces were not parties to the negotiations.

The alliance’s members have also followed separate paths. The OLA and ONLF returned from Asmara after Abiy invited exiled rebels home in 2018. The OLA later resumed fighting, while talks in Tanzania collapsed in 2023. The ONLF split in 2025 after its then-chairman called for a return to armed struggle during a dispute involving a Chinese natural-gas concession in Ethiopia’s Somali region.

Fano rebelled in 2023 after Abiy ordered regional special forces to be incorporated into the federal army, an order many Amhara viewed as equivalent to disarmament.

The Prosperity Party won 438 of 486 contested parliamentary seats in June. Voting did not take place in Tigray and was disrupted in parts of Amhara and Oromia.