Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters have taken control of Mekelle after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front withdrew from the city, renewing fears that northern Ethiopia could return to prolonged war.

The TPLF said its regional administration had temporarily moved out of Tigray’s capital and would operate from another location. It described the withdrawal as a step intended to prevent further destruction in Mekelle, while saying its forces would continue fighting from other positions.

A pro-government militia source, a humanitarian worker and a Mekelle resident cited by Reuters said federal forces and allied fighters were in control of the city. Goitom, a 37-year-old Mekelle resident, said government-aligned forces had taken key locations, including the airport.

“On Friday night, we were hearing gunfire but did not know what was happening,” Goitom said. “It feels like we are back to square one.”

He added that residents were worried about the consequences of another conflict. “We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next.”

Fears of a wider war

The renewed fighting comes after the African Union-facilitated Pretoria agreement ended two years of large-scale conflict between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF. The 2020–22 war killed hundreds of thousands of people according to estimates, displaced millions and severely damaged infrastructure and livelihoods.

Several issues remained unresolved after the agreement, including disputed territories, the return of displaced people and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces. The TPLF has said the agreement had effectively collapsed and accused the federal government of failing to implement key provisions. The federal government rejected that characterization and said it remained committed to the peace process.

Abraham Belay, the former president of the Tigray Interim Administration, said preparations were under way to establish a new interim administration and hold regional elections within months. He said administrative structures would be organized from the kebele level upward with community participation.

“We are working to establish a new administrative structure that will enable the people of Tigray to govern themselves,” Abraham said in an interview with Fana Broadcasting Corporate.

Fighting has also spread into Afar, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying the diplomats had been involved in activities that threatened Ethiopia’s national security.

Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia’s internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea rejected those accusations and later announced that it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia.

Residents fear civilian and economic costs

Diplomatic sources reported explosions in parts of Addis Ababa, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia’s military. A source linked to an opposition alliance claimed the group had carried out drone strikes in the capital, including against military facilities, but that claim could not be independently verified.

In Addis Ababa, Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper, said the violence had begun to feel closer to home. “I woke up and heard that my city had been hit,” he said.

“If Ethiopia goes into a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer,” said Bisrat, a college student. “I fear seeing another Sudan.”

In Shire, 32-year-old bajaj driver Berihu said he was distressed by the return of large-scale fighting. “I feel very heartbroken knowing that Tigray has gone back to full-scale war,” he said. “We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again.”

“It is painful to even think that civilians could once again bear the cost,” Berihu said. “We have already suffered enough.”

The extent and duration of the renewed conflict remain unclear, as do its effects on civilians and displacement. “We just want peace. We don’t want to go through the same thing again,” Berihu said.