An armed group aligned with Ethiopia’s federal government has claimed it is close to gaining full control of the northern Tigray region, amid renewed fighting with an opposition alliance led by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.

The commander of the Tigray Peace Forces said in a social-media statement late Thursday that TPLF forces had been wiped out. Al Jazeera reported that the claim could not be immediately verified.

The extent of territorial control held by the rival forces, and the status of Mekelle, Tigray’s regional capital, had not been independently established.

Fighting around Tigray

Hostilities resumed after the apparent collapse of a 2022 peace agreement that ended the war between Ethiopia’s federal government and forces from Tigray. The renewed clashes involve Ethiopian federal forces, including the Tigray Peace Forces, and an opposition alliance led by the TPLF.

Residents told Reuters that government forces were closing in on Mekelle. TPLF chairperson Debretsion Gebremichael acknowledged that federal forces had occupied parts of Tigray and said his forces would counter-attack “in due course”.

Fighting that began in southern Tigray also spread into the neighbouring Amhara and Afar regions. The Tigray Peace Forces commander’s remarks were described by analyst Mohammed Taha Tawakel as shedding light on “a new phase of this conflict”.

Tawakel said the federal army was providing full support to the Tigray Peace Forces, while the original TPLF continued to hold several towns. He also said the TPLF maintained a strong link with Eritrea along more than 800 kilometres of frontier.

Humanitarian and regional concerns

Tigray is home to between six and seven million people, according to Tawakel. He said residents were facing electricity cuts, internet blackouts and a total lack of communications.

Some civilians began moving towards Amhara and Afar because they feared the conflict could reach major urban centres. Aid agencies, including the United Nations, relocated some operations to newly secured areas in an effort to preserve a minimum level of humanitarian access.

Tawakel said the developments raised the prospect of the conflict increasingly becoming an internal struggle among Tigrayans themselves.

Seven armed and political groups announced an alliance on September 20 seeking to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration and establish an inclusive transitional government.

Ethiopian military officials have accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the Tigrayan-led alliance. Eritrea and Egypt denied accusations that they were backing efforts to destabilise Ethiopia.

The African Union has called on Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt to exercise “maximum restraint” and to “refrain from actions or statements that could further escalate tensions and undermine regional peace”.