Fighting Spreads Across Northern Ethiopia as Opposition Alliance Challenges Abiy

Renewed fighting in northern Ethiopia has expanded across the Tigray, Amhara and Afar regions, with several fronts active as political and territorial disputes left unresolved after the 2020–2022 Tigray war.

The escalation intensified between September 20 and 28, particularly on September 23. Government-aligned forces said they captured Alamata in Tigray on September 28, while government forces reported retaking Sekota in the Amhara region a day earlier.

Clashes across three regions

Alamata, about 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Mekelle, is a supply hub near Tigray’s border with Amhara. The conflict monitor ACLED said the town was hit by between 15 and 17 drone strikes on September 22, including strikes that affected several schools and a hospital.

Another front opened near the Tekeze River in western Tigray, an area disputed by Tigray and Amhara. Fighting also spread through northern Amhara around Kobo, Gidan and Sekota.

In Afar, Tigrayan forces and the Afar armed group Ugugumo advanced into areas near the Tigray-Afar boundary. Fighting was reported around Erebti and Abala. The advance could put pressure on the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia’s main route for imports, including fuel.

On September 23, Tigrayan forces seized the airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire and moved into parts of Afar and Amhara, according to the source material. ACLED said clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces had begun near the Sudanese border on August 1, followed by federal drone strikes and Tigrayan troop deployments.

The Ethiopian government described the Tigray People’s Liberation Front’s actions as an “all-out offensive”. The TPLF said it was fighting a “defensive war” and accused federal forces of using aircraft, drones and artillery. The competing accounts have not been independently verified.

Opposition alliance announced

Seven armed and political groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival on September 20. The alliance said it sought to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and establish an inclusive transitional administration that would end the country’s wars, protect rights and open a national dialogue.

The Sidama National Liberation Front said on September 25 that it would join the alliance. However, the coalition’s membership remains disputed. The Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement denied joining, while the Ogaden National Liberation Front is divided, with one faction supporting participation and another saying it is not part of the alliance.

The role of the Oromo Liberation Army in coordinated operations is also unclear. The OLA has fought federal forces in Oromia since 2018 and has indicated that its primary objective is removing the government rather than joining coordinated military action.

ACLED assessed that only the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and Ugugumo were actively fighting federal forces as of September 26.

Regional accusations and continuing disruption

Ethiopia’s army chief accused Eritrea, Sudan’s army and Egypt of backing armed groups. All three countries denied the allegation. Egypt said it strictly respects the sovereignty of neighbouring states.

Telecommunications have been cut across much of Tigray, while commercial flights have been suspended. The disruptions have separated families and hindered humanitarian operations.

The TPLF and the federal government remain divided over political control, security arrangements and disputed territory. The TPLF dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018, and it went to war with federal forces in November 2020. The Amhara Fano National Movement fought alongside federal forces during that war before turning against Abiy’s government in 2023.

Ethiopia’s federal system largely follows ethnic and linguistic divisions. The country is landlocked and borders Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti, adding regional significance to the conflict’s expansion.