Analyst Warns Tigray Fighting Could Trigger Wider Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict

Fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and mounting tensions with Eritrea are increasing the risk of a wider regional conflict, according to Magnus Taylor, deputy director of the Horn of Africa project at the International Crisis Group.

Clashes between Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) began on September 23. Federal forces later pushed back the TPLF offensive and seized Mekelle, the regional capital, after TPLF leaders and troops left the city.

The fighting, which had continued for almost two weeks in the period covered by the report, has revived fears of a return to the devastating civil war that took place from 2020 to 2022.

Uncertain direction of the TPLF retreat

Taylor said the TPLF had not maintained its offensive against the federal government as effectively as expected.

“We have been a little surprised that the Tigrayans have not been able to sustain their offensive against the federal government more successfully,” he said.

He cautioned, however, that the withdrawal from Mekelle did not necessarily mean the conflict was ending. The retreat could signal an attempt by the TPLF to “relaunch a different sort of an insurgency rather than an offensive campaign against the federal government.”

That possibility, combined with tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, could push the crisis beyond Tigray, Taylor said. “The fact that Ethiopia and Eritrea are coming up against each other now suggests the regional picture is looking worse and you could see a kind of more broader escalation that goes beyond Tigray,” he said.

Taylor described a wider regional war as “a worst case scenario,” rather than an established outcome.

Competing accusations

Tensions between Addis Ababa and Asmara have been rising for months. Eritrea has accused Ethiopia of intending to invade and seize access to its coastline, while Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of directly supporting Tigrayan rebels with backing from Sudan and Egypt.

Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt deny the allegation that they supported the Tigray rebels. The accusations have not been independently verified in the source material.

The conflict is unfolding alongside a long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Cairo fears the dam could reduce Egypt’s share of Nile waters.

Regional calls for dialogue

The presidents of Egypt, Somalia, Sudan and Eritrea met in El-Alamein, Egypt. In a statement from the Egyptian presidency, the leaders called for regional disputes to be settled through peaceful means and stressed respect for international law and non-interference in the internal affairs of states.

Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said cross-border issues required “cooperation, not competition, and dialogue, not confrontation,” including the management of natural resources and transboundary rivers in accordance with international law.

The diplomatic appeals come as the fighting in Tigray continues to raise concern about a possible expansion involving neighbouring countries. For now, the prospect of a broader Horn of Africa conflict remains an analyst’s warning, while the direction of the TPLF’s retreat and Ethiopia’s relations with Eritrea remain uncertain.