Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions rise as fighting spreads across Tigray

Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated sharply as fighting in and around Ethiopia’s Tigray region intensifies, prompting mutual accusations at the United Nations and warnings that the crisis could develop into a direct interstate conflict.

Ethiopia told the UN Security Council that Eritrean troops had advanced as far as 60km into Tigray and accused Eritrea of violating its sovereignty. In a letter to the council, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos described the alleged movement as “a blatant act of aggression that engages Ethiopia’s inherent right to self-defence”. Ethiopia invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter but did not specify what action it would take.

Eritrea rejected the allegation that its forces had entered Ethiopia. Its Foreign Minister Osman Saleh described Ethiopia’s accusations as a pretext for an offensive and called Addis Ababa’s actions a “deplorable declaration of war”. He urged the Security Council to take deterrent measures, warning that an Ethiopian offensive could bring “huge devastation to the peoples of both countries and destabilise the whole region”.

Fighting and battlefield advances

The diplomatic exchange came as fighting escalated on September 23, when a rebel alliance that included the Tigray People’s Liberation Front launched attacks against Ethiopian government forces across Tigray, Amhara and Afar.

The rebels captured Mekelle and its airport before announcing their withdrawal from the Tigray capital on October 3. Government-allied forces subsequently entered the city.

Ermiyas Ababu, commander of the government-allied Tigray Peace Force, said forces supporting the Ethiopian government had taken Idaga Hamus and Abiy-Adi in the Tembien area. Residents cited by Reuters reported that Idaga Hamus had been taken, while a business owner, Gebremedhin Kihishen, said government-allied forces controlled Abiy-Adi. It was not immediately clear which side had held the two locations before the reported advance.

Multiple media reports also said Ethiopian government troops and allied militias had entered Adigrat, about 30km from the Eritrean border. Verified footage showed government-allied militia members in the city, while Associated Press footage showed Ethiopian military vehicles entering Adigrat. Explosions and alleged drone strikes were also reported nearby.

The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project reported that Eritrean troops had crossed into Ethiopia near Zalambessa and came under Ethiopian drone attack while advancing towards Idaga Hamus. Eritrea had not commented on that report, and the alleged incursions have not been independently verified.

Dispute over Red Sea access

The latest tensions are also linked to Ethiopia’s demand for access to the Red Sea. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reiterated that access is essential for landlocked Ethiopia, while Eritrea is concerned about Addis Ababa’s intentions and fears Ethiopia may seek control of its port of Assab.

The two countries were allies against the TPLF during Ethiopia’s 2020-2022 Tigray war, but Eritrea was not a party to the November 2022 Pretoria agreement that ended major hostilities between Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan rebels. The countries previously fought a border war from 1998 to 2000, following Eritrea’s independence from Ethiopia in 1993.

Ethiopia has also accused Eritrea of financing, arming and directing armed groups and deploying troops inside Tigray. Eritrea denies those allegations. Professor Matthias Rompel of the Institute of Sociology at Justus-Liebig-University Giessen said the scale of Eritrean involvement and claims that Asmara is directing the rebellion remain difficult to establish independently.

Warnings of regional escalation

Analysts said both governments’ accounts contain elements that can be verified, while stressing that important claims remain unconfirmed. Hossamaldeen Ibrahim of the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute said the confrontation had entered “a high-risk phase of limited but direct military confrontation with a real possibility of rapid escalation into interstate war”.

Rompel said the danger of a wider conflict was real and that the crisis had moved beyond a purely diplomatic dispute. He linked Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambitions, Eritrea’s sovereignty concerns and Egypt’s rivalry with Ethiopia over the Nile to wider regional tensions involving Sudan, Somalia and Red Sea security.

Tom Gardner of The Economist described the current moment as the most dangerous for the region since the 1998-2000 war. Rompel cautioned, however, that a broader conflict was not inevitable, even as “the space for diplomatic de-escalation is rapidly narrowing”.