Mekelle falls as Tigray conflict reignites regional tensions

Ethiopian federal forces have entered Mekelle after nearly two weeks of fighting, while an alliance of rebel groups including the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) withdrew from the city.

The renewed conflict has effectively ended the 2022 Pretoria ceasefire and the fragile peace that followed the earlier Tigray war. Fighting was reported to be continuing in other parts of Tigray after the federal forces took control of the regional capital.

Ethiopian troops used air power and ground forces during their advance across Tigray. Rebel forces pulled back into the surrounding countryside following defeats around Alamata and Kobo, but TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael said the group would continue resisting.

“We will confront the enemy on our terms and where we choose,” Gebremichael said.

Reports of Eritrean troop movements

The capture of Mekelle has coincided with reports of Eritrean troops entering northern Tigrayan towns, including Adigrat and Idaga Hamus. The Associated Press reported the movements after the troops crossed into Ethiopia, although Eritrea has neither confirmed nor denied them.

Eritrea denied supporting the opposition alliance. The uncertainty over its military involvement has added to tensions between the two countries, whose relations deteriorated after the Pretoria ceasefire. During the 2020–22 Tigray war, Eritrean forces fought alongside Ethiopian troops.

Ethiopia closed its embassy in Eritrea and expelled Eritrean diplomats on October 1, accusing Asmara of hostile acts and involvement in the renewed fighting. Eritrea responded by severing diplomatic ties while denying that it backed the alliance.

Etana H Dinka, an assistant professor of African history at the University of Miami, said the Ethiopian army’s advance in Tigray directly threatened Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and the Eritrean state.

Mohamed Kheir Omer, a researcher focused on the Horn of Africa, said Eritrea might seek to support TPLF forces moving north so that any confrontation between Ethiopian and Eritrean troops would occur in Tigray rather than Eritrea. He presented the idea as a possible strategy, not a confirmed development.

Regional concerns over the Red Sea and Nile

The fighting has raised questions about whether Ethiopia’s neighbours could become more directly involved. Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia held a quadrilateral consultative summit in New Alamein, Egypt, on October 4.

The four countries pledged to strengthen political, economic and trade cooperation, along with consultation and coordination. Their joint declaration called for respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, noninterference in internal affairs and the peaceful settlement of disputes. The meeting was not described as a formal military alliance.

Egypt and Sudan denied Ethiopian accusations that they were supporting the opposition alliance. Hossamaldeen Ibrahim, an African analyst at the Bloomsbury Intelligence and Security Institute, said Egypt viewed Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam and any move by the Ethiopian army towards the Red Sea as strategic threats.

“Ethiopia is seeking a sea outlet; Eritrea sees this as an existential threat,” Ibrahim said.

Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea became independent in 1991 and relies heavily on neighbouring countries for access to international trade. It depends substantially on Djibouti for maritime commerce and is pursuing alternative arrangements involving Kenya and Somaliland.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has increasingly presented access to the Red Sea as a strategic priority since 2023. After being sworn in for another five-year term, he told parliament: “Based on the principle of give and take, we will work diligently to ensure that Ethiopia has an outlet to the sea.”

Pressure on Addis Ababa

Ethiopia is also facing insurgencies in Amhara and Oromia, raising the possibility that federal forces could be stretched across several fronts. The TPLF, Amhara Fano and the Oromo Liberation Army have challenged the federal government in different parts of the country.

A prolonged conflict in Tigray could keep Ethiopian forces tied down. A decisive federal victory, however, could give Addis Ababa greater freedom to focus on regional rivals, according to the source’s analysis.

Reuters has reported that Egypt provided political backing and logistical and technical support to Sudan’s army. A separate Reuters investigation said Ethiopia hosted a camp in western Benishangul-Gumuz where thousands of fighters linked to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces were allegedly being trained, citing eight sources. Reuters also reported allegations that the United Arab Emirates financed the camp and provided trainers and logistical support, although the UAE denied the claims and Reuters said it could not independently verify its role.

Whether regional involvement will remain diplomatic or extend to the battlefield remains uncertain. It is also unclear whether the TPLF and other armed groups can sustain a prolonged insurgency after withdrawing from major population centres.